College Football 25 simulation: Who wins when BYU visits SMU?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
BYU is headed into Dallas as a double-digit underdog for its Week 2 matchup against SMU.
It’s an important matchup for the Cougars early in the season — they are trying to get back to the postseason after a year off in 2023, and the Mustangs will provide an early season challenge.
How big of a challenge?
To help us answer that question, we turned to EA Sports’ College Football 25 for some answers.
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Friday’s game — and it was a close matchup throughout.
There were a few ground rules in place: After some testing and tweaking, I adjusted the simulation to 12-minute quarters — with the option to adjust that if necessary in future simulations — then let the computer simulate with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart changes were also considered.
For the BYU-SMU game, that meant putting Jake Retzlaff at QB1 for BYU — the video game has Gerry Bohanon as the higher-rated quarterback, so I swapped them on the depth chart.
In addition to altering a few backup positions due to injury, the biggest change for the Mustangs was sticking primarily with Preston Stone at quarterback.
In the real world, the Mustangs alternate between Stone and Kevin Jennings, but seeing as how there was no user interference and I could not adjust the depth chart during a simulation, it worked to just allow Stone to play the entire game.
Final score: SMU 38, BYU 33
Key play: Early in the fourth quarter after BYU had climbed back within five points at 31-26 after going down double digits in the third, the Cougars got a stop on their side of the field following a Retzlaff interception. Isaiah Bagnah helped force a punt with a first-down sack.
On the Cougars’ ensuing possession, though, turnover issues struck again.
Retzlaff was trying to throw out in the flat to Kody Epps, but SMU’s Cale Sanders Jr. jumped the route and came up with the second straight Retzlaff interception. Sanders returned it 46 yards for a pick six, giving the Mustangs a 38-26 lead with 7:25 to play.
How the game transpired: BYU led just once, though the Cougars stayed within one score of the Mustangs through much of the game.
Both teams had three scoring drives in the first half, with BYU trailing 17-13 at the break.
The Cougars briefly led 13-10 after a 21-yard Will Ferrin field goal with 1:14 left until halftime.
SMU struck quickly, though, as Jordan Hudson (who had a monster game) caught a 73-yard touchdown pass two plays into the ensuing drive to push the Mustangs back ahead.
The Cougars still had a chance to take the lead just before the half, as Retzlaff moved BYU into the red zone quickly. After three straight passes — two incomplete and another short of the end zone — Ferrin missed a 21-yard field goal that would have made it a 1-point game.
In the second half, BYU punted on the opening possession of the third and was playing catch-up after that.
Stone moved the Mustangs down the field methodically on their first drive of the second half and scored on a 10-yard QB keeper to make it 24-13 SMU.
The next three possessions also ended in touchdowns — two for BYU, and one for SMU. Both Cougar scores came on passes to tight end Keanu Hill, from 4 and 26 yards, though BYU failed on a 2-point conversion attempt after the first touchdown that would have made it a 3-point game.
Hudson, meanwhile, caught a long bomb in the back of the end zone for a 51-yard score in between those BYU touchdowns.
That made it 31-26 heading into the fourth quarter.
BYU forced a punt and had a chance to retake the lead early in the fourth, but Retzlaff’s first interception ended that opportunity.
That led to the Cougars’ defensive stop, followed by the costly Mustang pick six that gave them enough cushion to win the game.
BYU responded with a 75-yard drive that included a 33-yard catch from Parker Kingston on fourth-and-11 to get the Cougars inside the Mustangs’ 5-yard line.
After Retzlaff was sacked on first-and-goal, he hit Keelan Marion for a 15-yard touchdown to make it 38-33 with 2:23 to play.
SMU ran out the clock from there, using a 40-yard pass to Hudson and a strong running attack to keep BYU from possessing the ball again.
Star players: For SMU, Stone completed 19 of 22 passes for 358 yards and three touchdowns, while Hudson had six receptions for 217 yards and three scores.
BYU was paced by Retzlaff, who threw for 494 yards and three touchdowns, though both fourth-quarter interceptions were costly.
LJ Martin, who had a 6-yard touchdown run, added 139 rushing yards, while Chase Roberts had 12 catches for 186 yards and Hill added six grabs for 100 yards and the two touchdowns.
Final stats: There wasn’t a lot of defense in this simulation — the Cougars finished with 605 yards and SMU had 494.
BYU struggled with finishing drives in the first half, though, which led to having just 13 points at the half despite reaching the SMU red zone on each first-half possession.
The Mustangs, meanwhile, never turned the ball over and were 6 of 10 on third down. BYU, for its part, was 7 of 13 on third down.